Why Trump Secured a Major Step in Gaza But Faces Challenges Regarding Vladimir Putin Concerning Ukraine
Reports of an impending American-Russian presidential meeting have been greatly exaggerated, apparently.
Only a few days after Donald Trump said he planned to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in Budapest - "within two weeks or so" - the high-level talks has been put off without a new date.
A preliminary get-together by the two nations' top diplomats has been called off, too.
"I don't want to have a wasted meeting," President Trump told reporters at the White House on Tuesday afternoon. "I don't want a waste of time, so I'll see what transpires."
- Donald Trump states he wished to avoid a 'unproductive session' after plan for Putin talks postponed
- Disappointment in Ukraine's capital as Zelensky departs Washington empty-handed
The on-again, off-again meeting is another development in the president's attempts to mediate an end to war in the Eastern European nation – a topic of renewed focus for the American leader after he arranged a ceasefire and hostage release deal in Gaza.
During a speech in the North African country last week to commemorate that truce deal, the president addressed his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a fresh directive.
"It is essential to get the Russian situation resolved," he said.
Nonetheless, the circumstances that aligned to make a Middle East success achievable for Witkoff and his team may be challenging to duplicate in a Ukraine war that has been ongoing for almost four years.
Reduced Influence
Per the lead negotiator, the key to achieving a agreement was the Israeli government's move to attack representatives of Hamas in Qatar. It was a move that angered America's Arab allies but provided the president bargaining power to pressure Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
The US president gained from a long record of supporting Israel since his first term, encompassing his choice to move the US embassy to Jerusalem, to change America's position on the legality of Jewish communities in the occupied territories and, more recently, his support for Israeli defense operations against Iran.
The US president, actually, is more popular among the Israeli public than their prime minister – a position that provided him with special sway over the nation's head.
Add in the president's connections in politics and business to influential Arab nations in the area, and he had a wealth of negotiating strength to force an agreement.
In the Ukraine war, by contrast, the president has significantly reduced influence. In recent months, he has vacillated between efforts to pressure Putin and then Zelensky, all with little seeming effect.
The US leader has warned to enact additional penalties on Russia's oil and gas sales and to supply the Ukrainian forces with new long-range weapons. But he has also acknowledged that doing so could disrupt the global economy and intensify the war.
At the same time, the US leader has publicly berated Ukraine's president, temporarily cutting off intelligence-sharing with Ukraine and pausing weapon deliveries to the country - only to then retreat in the face of concerned European allies who caution a defeat of Ukraine could disrupt the entire region.
The president often boasts about his ability to meet and negotiate deals, but his face-to-face meetings with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders haven't seemed to move the hostilities any nearer a resolution.
Putin may in fact be exploiting the US leader's wish for a settlement – and belief in in-person deal-making - as a method of influencing him.
In July, Putin consented to a high-level meeting in the US state just as it seemed probable that the president would sign off on legislative penalties backed by Senate Republicans. That bill was subsequently put on hold.
Recently, as reports spread that the US administration was considering seriously sending long-range missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Ukraine, the Russian leader phoned the US president who then promoted the possible summit in Budapest.
The next day, Trump hosted Zelensky at the executive residence, but departed empty-handed after a reportedly strained discussion.
Trump insisted that he was not being manipulated by Putin.
"You know, I have been manipulated throughout my career by the best of them, and I emerged really well," he said.
But the president of Ukraine later commented on the sequence of events.
"Once the issue of advanced weaponry became a little further away for us – for our nation – Russia quickly became less interested in negotiations," he stated.
Thus, in a matter of days, the president has bounced from considering the idea of providing weapons to the Eastern European country to organizing a meeting in Hungary with Russia's leader and confidentially pressuring Zelensky to surrender all of Donbas – even land Russian forces has been failed to capture.
He has ultimately decided on advocating a ceasefire along current battle lines – something the Russian government has rejected.
On the campaign trail last year, the candidate promised that he could end the conflict in Ukraine in a very short time. He has subsequently abandoned that commitment, admitting that ending the hostilities is proving harder than he anticipated.
It has been a uncommon admission of the constraints of his power – and the difficulty of finding a peace plan when both parties wants, or can afford to, give up the fight.