Starmer's Supporters Initiate 'Halt Andy Burnham' Campaign to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Commons Re-entry
Close associates of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly kicked off a coordinated effort to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a comeback to parliament. This action comes after the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has prompted an upcoming by-election.
Serious Obstacles in the Candidate Selection Process
Several members on the party's ruling NEC have apparently predicted it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection process. This is primarily due to the sizable presence of Starmer loyalists on the body who are desperate to avert any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The Labour hierarchy is said to have mobilised following the revelation of the MP's planned departure, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the considerable financial cost and political risk of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Previously, he prompted consternation within No 10 and among senior ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had encouraged him to stand for the party leadership.
There has long been speculation that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to potentially contest the party leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, allies of the Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the level of any scheming, suggesting he is passionate about his job as mayor and would solely re-enter Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.
Political Landscape and Public Approval
Amid opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only prominent Labour personality with favourable public approval ratings.
If Mr. Burnham decide to run, several hurdles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then win the by-election against competition from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all before any potential bid for the leadership.
The 'Stop Andy' Campaign
Senior Labour sources have said that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already in progress, with the party's organisation being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally commented that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to cease discussion of possible leadership challenges.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
NEC members have reportedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated ÂŁ500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.
Several sources also expressed fears about Reform UK potentially fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.
Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. It is also possible the body could impose an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
Yet, a supporter counselled against assuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.
The trade unions hold a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently remaining quiet, sources suggested they would be opposed to anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
Electoral Challenges
The seat in question holds a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is likely to mount a significant challenge, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.
If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the parliamentary party.
The resigning MP stated he was stepping down due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He also remains under a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his membership in an offensive online group.
