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The polls are open for general elections in the Netherlands, with current polling data suggesting that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again emerge victorious, although experts suggest PVV stands little chance of joining the next government.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

The PVV, which previously pulled off a surprise first-place finish and formed a multi-party all-conservative government that lasted barely a year, is currently slightly leading in surveys and is projected to secure between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-seat parliament.

However, PVV's support has declined since the previous election, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have stated they will not forming a government with Wilders, who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in the summer over a dispute concerning his controversial immigration proposals.

Major Parties and Projections

At the end of a campaign dominated by issues such as migration, healthcare costs, and the country's severe housing shortage, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, expected to win between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist D66, projected to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is expected to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – comprising the PVV, liberal-conservative VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to lose seats, with some experiencing significant declines.

Voting Process and Fragmentation

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just less than one percent of the vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Of the 27 parties participating in the vote – including senior-focused parties, youth parties, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and for sport – up to 16 could enter parliament.

This high degree of fragmentation ensures that no one party is ever likely to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by coalitions – often including four parties in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the PVV ends up as the largest party yet is excluded from power. But, critics and analysts argue that winning the most seats does not assure government participation and that any governing alliance with a majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the election result is hard to predict and coalition talks could take several months, political observers suggest that after the most extreme government in its recent history, the future government is expected to be a broad-based alliance headed by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Election Day Details

Voting locations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, opened at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate exit poll is expected shortly after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an informateur will explore potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in the legislature. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must undergo a vote of confidence in the house before taking office.